It’s fair to say that, as years go, 2016 was rather unpredictable. It was a year that saw Leicester City win the Premier League, a property magnate defied all expectations to get elected the next US president and the UK voted to leave the EU. It was also a year of extreme highs and lows: a very bad year for the entertainment industry with the passing of many much-loved legends. But, a great year for sport with Team GB returning home with their best-ever medals haul, and Andy Murray rallying his way to Wimbledon champion and world number 1.
Amid all this, the financial markets have had rather an eventful year of their own.
2016 in summary
Financial markets had a rough start to the year, as concern grew around the fragility of China’s economic health. The price of oil dampened New Year spirits further and its continued slump saw it trade as low as $27.10 a barrel in mid January, although it has since returned to around $55 a barrel.
In late January, Japan surprised the world by announcing they would adopt negative interest rates for the first time ever. This was widely received as positive news for global shares as it represents governments’ willingness to support financial markets in the event of a slowdown in growth, thereby fuelling investors’ optimism.
The next major event that got everyone talking was the UK referendum in June. The unexpected outcome delivered a severe blow to the Pound that resulted in a depreciation of around 10% against the US Dollar. Government Bond prices surged higher as a result, pushing down borrowing costs for the UK government, as investors speculated on a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England.
After the shock of Brexit, investors approached the US presidential race in November with a degree of trepidation, although the consensus view was Hilary Clinton would be victorious. Again, the majority (and all the polls) were proved wrong and it was Trump making the victory speech. The market reaction also defied expectations, with US stock markets pushing to all-time highs1. President Elect Trump will continue to hold an important influence over global markets in 2017, although his pledges to cut taxes and increase spending are all theoretically positive for the US economy.
In yet another referendum, this time in Italy on the 4 December, voters were asked to approve a constitutional law that amends the powers of the Parliament of Italy. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi staked his tenure on a positive result and was forced to quit when the Italian public voted no. However, despite the fresh concerns for the fate of the Eurozone, the outcome of the vote had a minimal impact on global financial markets.
The final major event of 2016 took place in mid-December when the Federal Reserve (the US’s equivalent to the Bank of England) increased interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. Alongside the rate rise was the promise of three further increases next year. The prospect of higher-than-expected interest rates and borrowing costs in 2017 saw US bond prices tumble, while the US Dollar strengthened against many global currencies.
How our Plans have fared in 2016
In a year where the consensus view was outmaneuvered and sometimes defeated by what some are calling ‘a vote for change,’ the majority of our investment plans have performed solidly, with some customers enjoying double-digit returns in 2016 – a fantastic result, given such a topsy-turvy year.
We will continue to seek out the right investment opportunities for our customers’ Plans in 2017 and remain well-positioned to take full advantage of them as they arise.
A very happy and prosperous New Year from the Wealthify Investment Team!
1 S&P 500 reached 2,271.72 points, 13 Dec 2016. Source: Bloomberg
All market performance and price figures sourced from Bloomberg
Investing is for everyone.
Wealthify is the new way to invest your money.Try it now With investing your capital is at risk
The comments and opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and should not be taken as financial advice from Wealthify.